The unwind of STRC and the US stock markets dump under fears of inflation pressures dominated the markets last week.

Before writing anything else, let me inform you that due to family commitments, I won’t be able to write the report next Sunday. So, my next report will be on Sunday 21/06.

Last week was eventful for cryptos. STRC depegged further up to $90.38, while it closed the week at $93.40. The first week of the month is gone now and the next is the final (for June) week of potential BTC accumulation via STRC. At this point, the most probable scenario is that STRC will not achieve to return to $100 within the next week, which will probably raise further fears and potentially further unwind the ponzi. Pay attention, thinks can deteriorate rapidly.

Of course, a lot depends on the US stock market, which dumped hardly on Friday. If this proves to be the start of a broader US stock market correction, it could create the perfect storm in conjunction with the STRC situation.

Technically, we briefly took the $59,900 level on Friday, but this was only for a few hundred dollars. There is an attempted bounce today (Sunday) and if it carries on tomorrow this could lead to the $65,065 level. This level was acting as a support, I would expect it now to flip into a resistance. A rejection there, probably means we are heading for new lows. It looks probable to me that we are going to take the August 2024 swing low of $48,914. The range of roughly $49k-$62k could be the range of the next few weeks/months.

I have set limit orders in the range $55k-$40k. I am optimistic that the orders up to $49k will be filled, while I think I will need to move the lower orders higher. At the moment, I don’t believe the price will remain lower than $49k for a long time. If it goes there, it would be probably with a liquidation wick. My orders between $48k-$40k exist only to exploit the eventuality of such a wick. My total orders are for about 60% of my portfolio, so I will still have 40% to deploy discretionally in case something weird happens.

Like I wrote in the previous report, your attention now should not be on shorting the last market moves to the downside, but rather to protect your portfolio from any potential disaster/bankruptcy and DCA into BTC in good prices. We are soon entering the accumulation phase of the cycle.

Long live the accumulation and long live the cycle!

Last week’s price action for gold was bearish. On Friday, it lost the daily 200MA and I don’t want to do anything here. However, an SFP on the 23/03 swing low of $4,100 or on the 28/10/2025 swing low of $3,901, when it happens, would tempt me to open a long trade.

I decided to close my natural gas long trade on Thursday after the bullish US storage announcement. Normally, I would wait a bit longer, but I won’t be able to monitor price action next week. It was a nice +25% swing trade for the first bullish part of the season and I will be back in late summer to try to catch the main move of the season.

USD was stronger this week, closing 1.14% up and heading for another test of the critical $100.395 level. Another temporary rejection (and the subsequent chop) or the inevitable violent breakout? We will learn soon…

Nasdaq erased almost one month’s gains last week by closing 4.53% down. Even a bullish retest of $26,399 is 9% down from here. On Wednesday 10/06 and Thursday 11/06, we expect inflation numbers for CPI and PPI respectively and the first FED meeting under Warsh’s leadership is planned for next Wednesday 17/06. Fun times ahead…