Last week, all eyes were on the BTC chart, as it lost the critical support of $73,949 and fall under the Saylor’s average of $76k. Gold had a nice bounce at the 50% of the crash candle and USD exhibited relative strength in a week that was unusually quiet in terms of political/geopolitical news.

In the last report we noticed that BTC was about to close below the 2 weeks 50MA, something that denotes the end of the bear market’s first phase and the beginning of the second more brutal phase. You got a taste of that brutality last week.

The March 2024 swing high of $73,949 failed to provide support and BTC dumped hard down to $59,900. The fact that we almost reached the weekly 200MA (currently at $58,069) makes me believe that we have to revision either the price or the time of the bear market bottom. Either BTC is going to bottom much earlier than expected by the cycles theory (i.e. early October), or it is going to bottom lower than we originally thought.

My original expectation for the lowest possible bottoming level was at the August 2024 swing low of $48,914, under the assumption that Saylor won’t get bankrupt. Under the same assumption, my new expectation is that BTC could drop to the next support level of about $40k-$44k.

In the short term, I would like to remind all people that talk about a “V-shape recovery”, that BTC tends to retest the swing lows of big red candles even if it then reverses to the upside. This means that both bears (who believe the bear market low will be be much lower than $59,900) and bulls (who believe it will be close to that level) should expect the $59,900 level to be taken first. This provides a short term target to be reached in the following weeks or even 1-2 months.

If stock markets help, I would expect the bounce to carry on next week. Potential targets where it could fail include the March 2024 level of $73,949, the swing high of $79,388 and the 4h orderblock of $82k-$84,635. I will be monitoring theses levels for potential SFPs that would trigger short positions.

Regarding gold, in the last report I wrote: “I see the area between $4,584-$4,650 as a strong support and I would expect a bounce from there” and indeed gold provided a great SFP of the $4,584 level that brought an 11% bounce to the 50% of the 30/01 crash candle.

Also in the last report I wrote:

Step 1 is now completed, but I think we could bounce further during next week up to 75% of the crash candle, i.e. 5,285. I will be monitoring price action for a potential failure on this level and in any case I would short a potential SFP of $5,113.

Interestingly step 2 is also completed, as the $4,700 swing low was taken in the early hours of previous Monday. That’s an interesting deviation from bitcoin’s behaviour. From a technical analysis viewpoint, this could open the road for a new ATH, i.e. step 3 where the real move is to the upside. But, my non TA bias is that this was gold’s bull run top, or at least a local top initiating a major correction (lasting weeks or even months) within gold’s bull run. Let’s watch.

Silver bounced harder than gold when gold reclaimed the $4,584 level with a +16% move. It has a much weaker chart than gold, as the bounce failed much before the 50% of the crash candle and it made a lower low on Friday, while gold made a higher low. I see a lot of resistance between about $83-$86, but I prefer to make my decisions based on the gold chart. If gold carries on bouncing to $5,285 (as explained above), I would expect a similar bounce on silver and if gold fails there, I would expect silver to fail harder. So, if I open a short on gold based on the conditions described above, I would open a silver short at the same time, irrespective of silver’s price at that time.

I have no interest in the other metals, I will concentrate on gold and silver, like I did during the previous week.

Besides metals, I did not trade any other commodity last week and I don’t see anything interesting for the next week.

In the last report I wrote:

Well, I did regret it, as Monday closed at -28%. Anyway, we are now in the middle of nowhere and I don’t see a way to participate next week on this market.

I messed up this trade spectacularly. Coffee offered a -13% move after breaking down from the $339 critical level. I missed this short, although I had identified this as a nice setup in the 25/01 report. If you are interested in finding out how a messed this up, please read the last report.

Regarding Forex, last week I was interested in CHF and I am still interested in this for the next week.

In the last report, I wrote:

And indeed $1.29045 provided support. I longed the SFP of this level on Tuesday and closed when I observed a failure on the 4h 50MA on Tuesday evening. I re-entered a long on the same level on Thursday morning and am still long. The more times we hit a resistance the less strong it is, so I have moved the stop loss to the entry and wait to see what happens with this trade. I think this will resolve soon, either to much higher or much lower. In any case, this is now a free trade for me.

3 months of nothingness and Nasdaq still goes nowhere. The only new thing that last week brought us is a lower low on the daily chart. Could this be the beginning of a downward move? Let’s watch.

I noticed a breakout to a new ATH on the Dow Jones index. I will not participate in this market, as I think big boys use small cap stocks for distribution and believe it does not worth my time. I will concentrate on cryptos and metals that have been providing much more lucrative opportunities for months. But, I thought that maybe it would be worth mentioning for some of you.