We are entering the first week of the month after the STRC inflows ended. The US inflation is heating up and the US-China meeting did not help stopping the Hormuz Strait closure.

The last report was titled “Saylor, Warsh and CPI”. While the Warsh designation as a FED chair did not have any visible impact, the other two factors determined previous week’s price action and will probably affect it for the next weeks at least.

STRC had sizeable inflows on Wednesday (more than $0.5b) and Thursday (about $1.5b). While the numbers are big, they are much smaller than the same week of April and recall that this month STRC had inflows only for 4 days, instead of 10+ during the previous months. There are also posts claiming that the $1.5b of the Thursday inflows were not used by Strategy to buy BTC, but to rebuy old debt. We will learn for sure tomorrow when Strategy is going to disclose the previous week’s BTC purchase. In any case, the first cracks have appeared to the STRC ponzi and I expect the next month’s inflows to be even smaller, if any... What everybody knows for sure is there won’t be any buying pressure from STRC for the next 2-3 weeks.

The inflation figures as measured by both CPI and PPI came hotter than the expectations. This is not a surprise, as the elevated oil price due to the Hormuz Strait closure was expected to affect inflation. While this was a logical expectation, the markets looked and still look complacent.

Last, the US-China meeting did not bring anything that could solve the Hormuz Strait closure, as one could expect. This brings a new US/Israel military operation closer imho.

Looking at the technicals, BTC did not provide the SFP of $82,811, as it was rejected a bit lower. Furthermore, it printed daily closes below the important level of $79,388. This level has acted as both a resistance and a support in the past and I expect it to flip once again into resistance. The next target to the downside is the critical level of $73,949 and losing this will point to the $59,900 swing low. Pay attention to the next weeks. The area between $59,900-$48,914 is the accumulation area for me. That’s where I will be buying for the next bull run.

Last week gold confirmed its weakness by doing a bearish retest on the daily 50MA. I will not touch it here, although I have a bearish bias, I would expect it to move firstly to the daily 200MA, currently at $4,340 and, if this level does not hold, to the 23/03 swing low of $4,100. An SFP of $4,100, when it occurs, will be a strong long trade signal.

Silver’s price action is a bit stronger than gold’s, as it broke above the daily 50MA and has not lost it since then. But, if gold confirms my bearish bias, I would expect silver to follow. Recall, that $55-$61 is a strong accumulation zone and an SFP of $61.21 would by a mythical long opportunity imho.

My natural gas long printed 8.62% gains last week. This is a swing trade of an anticipated duration of 1-2 months based on seasonality and targeting $3.67.

The USD index moved higher last week and closed above the weekly 50MA. It still trades within a narrow range since May 2025. This looks like a bottoming formation to me. The question is how long will it take for this formation to complete.

This was the first red weekly candle after 6 green candles for Nasdaq. Even a bullish retest of the breakout level at $26,399 would be about a 10% correction from the current levels.