Nemesis is coming for crypto markets after Saylor’s hubris. USD further strengthens, pressing precious metals and stocks, while the US-Iran MoU proves to be ,.

Do you remember what was written in crypto twitter during March? The US stock market was falling, but BTC held well, printing a higher low from February. People attributed this to STRC, that allowed Saylor to buy billions of BTC every month. They thought that this could be sustainable and by projecting these inflows to future months, they concluded the February low was the total bear market low. They committed a kind of hubris, mainly Saylor who artificially protected the February low with his ponzi and his funs to a smaller extend by believing him. And now comes the nemesis. The normal dump they prevented from happening then, is going to happen now and possibly with a stronger force.

STRC closed the week at $74.57 with a -15.83% move. Everyone asks “where does this end?” and there are still faithful persons in crypto twitter hoping that new capital will enter STRC which will eventually repeg to $100… It probably ends to 0, as with all ponzis.

The downward spiral is affecting the MSTR stock price too. It closed the week at $82.31 with a -26.86% move. It spent a lot of time between $14-$36 during the last bear market and it could find some support there, unless Saylor blows everything up.

At this point, the market expects Saylor to sell a sizeable portion of Strategy’s BTC stash in an attempt to steady the ship. If he does, then this moment will probably mark this bear market’s bottom and will provide a generational opportunity. If somehow he manages to avoid this, it will take a lot of time for the market to realise that this danger is no longer a possibility and the price will probably bleed, slower but for longer.

As I wrote in the last report, I have set up limit orders between $55k-$40k that correspond to 60% of my portfolio. I reserve the other 40% to deploy discretionally depending on the conditions. If Saylor is forced to sell a sizeable portion of Strategy’s BTC, the price could fall down to $30k. In this case, I will deploy the rest 40%. If not, I doubt my lower orders (i.e. $48k-$40k) will be filled, I will probably have to buy the $49k-$55k range twice and deploy the rest 40% on this range too. I have no longer a taste for trading here. Especially, given the fact that I was shorting altcoins exclusively since July 2025 and I am convinced that some altcoins may have already found their bear market bottom. This is accumulation phase for me and my total attention is devoted to buying BTC in discount.

There is a hope in crypto twitter that July could bring a good bounce. July is statistically a good month for the US stock markets and this has resulted in previous years in good BTC performance at times where the BTC/Nasdaq correlation was high. Maybe, it will happen again, but I do not care, my plan is no trading at all and to wait for my orders to be filled partially or totally until October.

My attention regarding metals is on silver. I would like to see an SFP of $54 in high timeframes, i.e. daily candles closing below this and then reclaiming it. This would trigger a long trade for me targeting $82 at least. If $61.21 is reclaimed before of an SFP at $54, this would still trigger a long trade for me, but it would be a scalp trade targeting somewhere close to $67 and with the intention to close it before $67 is reached, if I observe even a small sign of weakness.

The US dollar index confirmed the breakout with another green weekly candle of +0.6%. A stronger USD pressures the prices of all the USD-denominated assets lower. Let’s watch how strongly this will play out.

I am closely monitoring the price action on the Euro FX Futures chart. At the moment price looks to me that it attempts a bearish test of the critical $1.1424 level. If this is confirmed, I will enter a short trade targeting at least $1.1089. If price reclaims $1.1424, I will abstain.

The Nasdaq chart has printed a double top formation. The loss of the daily 50MA will be a first sign for a further correction. This chart could correct 10% to $26,399 and still be bullish. Stock market participants are expecting a strong July due to seasonality, let’s watch if this will play out after such a strong move.