With the FED meeting and most of the US stock earning reports behind us, we turn our attention to STRC for the next two weeks as the potential catalyst for cryptos.

Last week, we observed a correction from the Monday to the Wednesday’s FED meeting, but now we are about to close the week near to where it opened. As I have noticed in the last two reports, as long as the price holds the critical level of $73,949, we could expect a further move higher. We have tagged the 02/02 swing high of $79,388 twice so far and this means liquidity is building up above this level. I would expect this liquidity to be taken soon. The next target above is the 4h bearish orderblock between $82k-$84,635. The daily 200MA lies within this orderblock, currently at $83,704. I would expect a rejection either from the orderblock, or below it, i.e. an SFP of $79,388 that fails to reach the orderblock. I think the first is the most probable (read the reason below), but I will be ready for the second scenario too.

We enter a period of the month where normally STRC surpasses $100 and therefore Saylor issues new STRC stocks and dumps them to buy BTC. Next week 04-08/05 and the following 11-15/05 are expected to be the 2 weeks of the month that he will be able to buy Bitcoin. There are people trading this event, e.g. front running Saylor. This makes me believe BTC could reach the orderblock within the next two weeks, except if anything bad happens in the US-Iran front or in traditional markets. On the other hand, if STRC fails to surpass $100 during the next week, this whole trade unwinds violently and signals to the market that the ponzi has run out of steam.

While gold still trades within a narrow range, it finally offered me the price action I needed to develop a short term trading plan. An SFP of $4,522 triggers a long trade for me, while an SFP of $4,917 triggers a short trade. If none of the two SFPs occurs, I will not trade metals at all. I noticed a bit of decorrelation between gold and silver lately and therefore I will trade gold directly. All the other metal charts are more mixed and I do not want to touch them during the next week.

I am still in the natural gas long trade I mentioned in the last report. This was the 1st week of this trade and is already printing a nice +4.67% gain. This is a swing trade of an anticipated duration of 1-2 months based on seasonality and targeting $3.67.

Nothing important happened on the USD index front last week, as it closed the week at 0.3% lower.

No change on the Nasdaq front either since last week. The week closed at 1.46% higher than it opened, supported by good earnings reports by the most famous companies. I do expect people who chase prices here to be punished hardly.