Last week showed the first sights of the risk-on trades losing momentum. The US/Iran ceasefire extension ends today and major central banks meet this week.

In the last report, I wrote:

Indeed, the $73,949 level was tested on the early hours of Monday and it hold, then the $79,388 level was tagged on Wednesday. At this point the bounce seems tired, as is shown by the bearish RSI deviation on the daily chart. If a catalyst is found on Monday or Tuesday the 4h bearish orderblock at $82,000-$84,635 could be tested. Otherwise, the bounce could finish with another SFP at $79,388. The targets to the downside are:

While each one of the above levels could provide support (and probably all will at low time frames), I see the 06/04 rejection block at $69,000-$70,450 as the most important. If this bounce is to take more time, this level has to hold. Loose this level and $59,900 is your next target.

The ceasefire between US and Iran ended on Tuesday and Trump decided to extend it for 3-5 days, a period which ends today. The meeting in Islamabad that was planned for this weekend was canceled and my assessment is that the US and Israel are probably preparing for a new round of military action against Iran. While Trump is unpredictable, he has shown so far he deeply cares about stock markets and he always strikes after the Friday close. This could mean another 5 trading days without major news on this front.

If this is this the case, then before Friday night, we should pay attention to the the Bank of Japan’s meeting on Tuesday and the FED meeting on Wednesday. These events could produce volatility.

April has been proven to be a very boring month for metals. Nothing really happened. Gold chops within a narrow range below the daily 50MA. This could look as weakness, but could also prove to be a consolidation phase before the next leg up. I really don’t want to get involved until we get a more clear picture.

Natural Gas is a highly seasonal commodity. The season’s low is normally printed between February-April and the first rally of the season normally happens in May/June. I initiated a long position before the Friday close and intend to add to my position if the price drops further, otherwise I will add higher. My target is the 09/03 swing high of $3.67. This is a long term trade, I expect to have it open for 1-2 months.

USD moved slightly up last week, showing that the momentum of the risk-on trades has been lost. The FED meeting next week could provide direction to the Forex markets.

Nasdaq printed a new ATH last week, mainly driven by AI stocks. I think the price is trapping late longs before a significant move to the downside. Let’s watch how the Japan and US central banks meetings and any potential US-Iran war developments will affect the stock markets.